In February 2022, the president of Russia announced the beginning of the “special military operation,”
and Russian troops invaded Ukrainian territory. What the authorities envisioned as a swift campaign turned
into a prolonged, full-scale war. Over the course of the first year of war, many events have taken place —
some kept Russians in tension, some made them distance themselves from what was happening, some gave them hope,
while others plunged them into despair. The retreat of Russian forces from occupied territories, the annexation
of Ukrainian regions, the bombing of Kyiv, the explosion on the Crimean Bridge, the announcement of
“partial mobilization” — these are just a few of them. Do these events change how ordinary Russians view the war,
and if so, how? How do residents of the Russian Federation perceive the protracted “special military operation”?
How is support for the war structured in Russian society today? Our analytical report offers answers to these questions.
Several research teams have been monitoring how Russians’ perceptions of the war change using public opinion surveys.
They are doing very important work. However, the perception of such a politically complex and contradictory issue as war —
especially among a wide range of Russians who are often far removed from politics — does not always fit neatly into
standardized sets of coherent positions that can be captured by polls. This perception can be complex and ambivalent —
and in such cases, in-depth interviews and long conversations with people provide the best understanding of its nuances.
We are the only team that conducts systematic monitoring of Russians’ perceptions of the war using qualitative methods
(interviews) rather than quantitative ones (surveys).
Our first analytical report (available on this website in Russian only) presented the results of the first wave of research
conducted in the spring of 2022, right after the war began. The report you are now about to read is our second analytical report.
It is based on an analysis of 88 in-depth interviews with Russians who do not consisder themselves opponents of the war.
These interviews were collected in the autumn and winter of 2022. The text contains many direct quotes from our interviewees.
From it, you will learn how the perception of the war among its non-opponents changes over time; how they react to the announcement
of “partial mobilization” and to the prolongation of the war; how they consume information about the conflict; how they envision
its end; and most importantly — what lies behind the support for the war among those who choose not to question the government’s actions.
The report was originally written in Russian and translated into English by the Russia Program at The George Washington University.
It was first published here.
💾Resigning themselves to inevitability: Download report